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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would constitute assurances matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.