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Welcome. Keir Starmer is leading a government meeting this morning after losing his deputy prime minister, his representative to Washington, and his strategy chief all within less than a fortnight.

The Commons starts a month-long recess this tonight, which offers some relief. With lawmakers away from Parliament, they are less likely to participate in dissident plotting.

But before they head off, MPs will spend several hours in a debate on a former minister, which is expected to focus on whether Starmer was right to select him in the first place and whether he has been fully candid about what he was aware of regarding emails to Jeffrey Epstein when he defended the envoy last week.

Additionally, there’s more unfavorable developments for Starmer this morning. A poll of Labour party members shows:

• Just 25% of them feel Labour is moving in the right direction.
• Only about a quarter of them have a positive opinion of the leader, compared to nearly six in ten who view him negatively.
• Lucy Powell, who was sacked by Starmer as a senior role, has a significant advantage over Bridget Phillipson, in the contest to be second-in-command. Phillipson is viewed as the loyalist candidate, while Powell is seen as the option for members who want to express some dissent.

Surveys are potentially fallible, party membership polling are particularly difficult, and in some respects the views of party members are fairly irrelevant at the moment.

The chances of a contest anytime soon still look very slight, and even if Powell were to win the number two position, the post holds almost no formal power within Labour.

Still, the polling appears good.

Today’s Agenda

• 9.30am: Keir Starmer chairs cabinet.
• Today: Starmer meets relatives of people who died at Hillsborough to mark the publication of the public office accountability bill.
• Later: Kemi Badenoch is on a visit in London.
• 11.30am: The justice secretary takes questions in the Parliament.
• Noon: The policing minister gives a speech to the Police Superintendents’ Association.
• Midday: The government holds a press conference.
• Afternoon: Wes Streeting visits the emergency services.
• Early afternoon: MPs begin a lengthy emergency debate on the appointment process and events leading to the removal of the former envoy to the US.

Survey data is unreliable, particularly when sampling a limited group such as political supporters.

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